As part of our 2023 NFL Preseason Preview Series, we look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
The Saints’ 7-10 record was not indicative of the team’s success. With a quarterback carousel that was a determinant, this team somehow managed to finish 10th in offensive success rate and 6th in defensive success rate. Say what you want about Derek Carr, he is a substantial upgrade at the quarterback position. Carr, who historically plays poorly in cold weather games, has zero scheduled and will play 13 of his 17 games inside a dome. Adding RB Jamaal Williams will only help them in red zone efficiency. If Michael Thomas can stay healthy and Alvin Kamara can put his off-field issues behind him, the Saints could make a move in a rather weak division.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: CAUSE FOR CONCERNS
There are serious concerns that Alvin Kamara may, and possibly will, get suspended. Jamaal Williams is an excellent running back, but he cannot replicate Kamara’s production out of the backfield. The Saints defensive line leaves a lot to be desired, finishing last in ESPN NFL’s win rate and 25th in run stop win rate. There is an expectation that they will see a decrease in their sack percentage as well. Head coach Dennis Allen also finished last among NFL head Coaches in +EV “go for it rate” according to rbsdm.com. Without a change in his play-calling mentality, the Saints’ self-inflicted wounds could keep them from their potential.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
I only have the Saints winning 9.6 games this year, but there seems to be a lot of potential for this team. With the odds shaded to the under, I think there is actionable value in the over 9.5 wins at +120. There is also the potential that things click for the Saints and they run away with this division. Playing over their alt win total may also be worth a look. However, we also have an opportunity Week 8 against the Colts that is worth our attention. I make the Saints -3.25 and we are getting an extremely cheap moneyline.
Best Bet: Week 8 NO Moneyline vs IND (-120)
(Play to -130)
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